Abstract

I propose the use of broad-scale, GIS-based data to develop quantitative models of the relationships between landscape variables and key conservation variates such as species richness and endemism. In particular, I propose the development of General Linear Models (GLMs) and the use of geostatistics to estimate species richness from stream and catchment-related variables at different scales. Such models have a wide range of potential uses, including prediction of the consequences of environmental changes, and would be valuable to both managers and theoreticians. Much of the necessary data is already available from TNC, and the project would contribute usefully to key freshwater initiatives within TNC; further discussions with TNC staff at the outset would ensure its relevance."

From the introduction: "I propose that probability distributions of key conservation variates can be predicted from landscape position, land cover, land use, terrain attributes, geologic properties and soil types, most of which can be described as GIS layers based on remotely sensed imagery or other sources. Although the predictions of models based on these variates will be probabilistic rather than deterministic, I hypothesize that the probabilistic predictions will significantly narrow the scope of sites for more detailed investigation and eventual conservation. In essence, I propose to use the larger grain information of hierarchical regional filters to assign site-specific weights proportional to conservation value. These weights could be used to set priorities for finer-grain fieldwork. Experience with Wisconsin lakes illustrates the plausibility of this idea.

Publications

Peterson, G. D., Beard, T. D. Jr., Beisner, B. E., Bennett, E. M., Carpenter, S. R., Cumming, G. S., Dent, C. L., and Havlicek, T. D. (2003). Assessing future ecosystem services: a case study of the Northern Highlands Lake District, Wisconsin. Conservation Ecology 7(3):1.

Cumming, G. S. & Havlicek, T. D. (2002). Evolution, ecology and multimodal distributions of body size. Ecosystems 5: 705-711.

Walker, B., Carpenter, S., Anderies, J., Abel, N., Cumming, G., Janssen, M., Lebel, L., Norberg, J., Peterson, G. D., & Pritchard, R. (2002). Resilience management in social-ecological systems: a working hypothesis for a participatory approach. Conservation Ecology 6(1): 14

Dent, C. L., Cumming, G. S., & Carpenter, S. R. (2002). Non-linearities in lake and stream ecosystems. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 357: 635-645.

Cumming, G. S. (2002). Habitat shape, species invasions, and reserve design: insights from simple models. Conservation Ecology 6(1): 3.

Cumming, D. H. M & Cumming, G. S. Ungulate community structure and ecological processes: body size, hoof area and trampling in African savannas. In press.

Peterson, G. D., Cumming, G. S. & Carpenter, S. R. Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain future. In press.

Cumming, G.S. In review. Correlates of fish species richness: environment, low-head dams, and questions of scale.